Talking Stock With The Doc

This Blog has been created for the purpose of sharing my ideas on investing on Bursa Malaysia using Technical Analysis. Stock market investing is a science & TA a scientific tool used by investment professionals. TA also has its sceptics but this is an oportunity for you to follow TA based investing ideas. So welcome to my blog and may you "Live Long And Prosper".

Thursday, July 13, 2006

KLCI - Mild Correction then Inverted Head & Shoulders?


There has been some discussion on ChargingBull's blog about KLCI and a possible inverted H&S formation. Lets see what the chart shows.

Firstly the double bottom formed on 2 Dec & 15 June is now confirmed (X & Y). This is bullish for the CI and has been reflected in the rise up to current levels. Secondly, it has risen convincingly above the 200-day Moving Average & is staying above it. Thirdly it is also above the long term uptrend line (Z1-Z2) which goes back to year 2003. It is also above the 10, 21, 30 & 50 day MAV. Daily RSI & MACD are positive. Weekly RSI is flat but weekly MACD has not shown a positive crossover yet (the only negative indicators so far).

Are we also seeing the possibility of an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern forming? S1 is the first part of the shoulder, Y is the head. If prices over the next few days fall slightly to around 920 & then rise again, then the second shoulder S2 will be confirmed. There is a good chance of this if the Z1-Z2 trendline & 200-day MAV hold up prices. The question is will it?

If this scenario happens & a breakout from the H&S happens, the measurement target is 980 which is the top of the upper long term trendline (T1-T2). Everything will then fall into place very nicely for Charting enthusiasts.

The possible dangers to this is the record oil price currently at US$ 76 a barrel & the falling Dow. If oil rises beyond $80 & the Dow falls below 10,500 convincingly then the CI will also fall & all bets are off.

For now I believe the CI will stay strong, the next few days are important to determine the H&S formation.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home