Talking Stock With The Doc

This Blog has been created for the purpose of sharing my ideas on investing on Bursa Malaysia using Technical Analysis. Stock market investing is a science & TA a scientific tool used by investment professionals. TA also has its sceptics but this is an oportunity for you to follow TA based investing ideas. So welcome to my blog and may you "Live Long And Prosper".

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Update KLCI & Futures

Finally got my data sorted out but some stocks still had some corrupted data. Took some time to correct then all. However, I see no significant changes in many of the stocks we have been following so I didn't find it necessary to post them today.

KLCI - Is still rising, but my concern is that volume is still very low. If Vol remains low it will never penetrate 950 so we may have a flat CI for a while. Two issues will be of concern to investors. Firstly whether Bank Negara will inc interest rates at their meeting on Friday. China increased its rates by 0.25% on Monday, will M'sia follow. If there is no rate inc, then the CI may fly, if there is then expect a big correction next week. Secondly of course is the budget on 1st Sept. Investors want to see what's on offer. Expect more money for construction, announcements of some major projects, more money for agriculture & aquaculture and the usual suspects, tax on alcohol & cigarettes. So if there is no rate inc & the budget is favourable, then construction stocks will do well post-budget. UEM World & Builders, Gamuda & IJM would be the picks.

In terms of TA, RSI & MACD are still flat, index is up but on low volume, support is at 940 & strong resistance at 950.


CI Futures - Is also rising & is maintaining the premium to the CI. It is actually looking quite positive but I expect the same factors as above will affect it. Resistance at 960 & support 940.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Update KLCI & Futures

Again my stock data is corrupted. Tuesday data became Monday & Monday disappeared, so I cannot analyse stocks but the Indices are ok.

KLCI - Another day up. But the Bollinger Band (BB) is narrowing. That can indicate flat trading for a short term. Unless there is a major catalyst I don't see CI bursting up or falling down. This is one fo those times when its too tough to call either way. As my reader Isaac says, its pretty blur. He's staying out of the market for now & that may be good advice. Anyway there is no reason to sell & really no reason to buy either. Maybe everyone is waiting for the budget to be presented.


CI Futures - Is continuing to rise. It is at a small premium to the KLCI. Is that indicative of future upward movement for the CI? That is very possible. From all indicators from BB to RSI & MACD as well as the 5,10 & 15-day MAV all are indicating continued rise for futures, so thats the trend for now, rising, slowly but surely. 940 is still a strong support & 960 the resistance.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Trading Bursa - Trust No One Not Even Yourself

I had a reader yesterday who said he read my blog posting on RHB where I said due to the large fall in prices it would be best to stay out of the stock & so he missed out on what was a surprising & big rise in the stock. He must have been pissed off but he was very polite in saying he missed the boat bec he read my blog & didn't buy RHB although his instinct was to buy.

Here I must thank my many readers like Tii288, GLC & TC who came out in strong support of my blog & TA. Thank you guys, its nice to be appreciated.

H'ever the point I would like to make is that TA is NO GUARANTEE that you can get a trade right or wrong. BUT it is still the best method we have of making profitable trades. Yes we will miss out on some opportunities & yes we may even lose money sometimes but on the long term we will make money using TA. I have been trading since 1983 & I bet that is a darn sight longer than some of you, heck, many of you probably were still in diapers when I first started trading... 8))

I have lost money on so many occassions & I lost my pants in 1994 & 1997/8. After that I took up TA & thank goodness I have been making money since then. Sure I have still missed many opportunities but I managed to get out before any major falls & got in maybe not at the earliest stage but early enough to make money. I have tried the "instinct" bit & lost money 80% of the time, thats why I say don't even trust yourself bec instinct does not work.

But do not, I repeat, DO NOT just read a blog & then make a trade bec of what someone says in a blog. Go and learn TA & fundamental analysis as well. Be a master of the trade & not a slave of the blog! When you are good in TA then read what others have to say in blogs bec as good as you are you may still miss some signal or other & someone may have spotted it. Then check it out yourself & when you are certain that the TA is sound & the signals are good then make the trade.

But don't just punt, don't listen to rumours & worst of all don't use your instinct. Thats the sure receipe for losing everything.

Update: KLCI & CI Futures

Some of my stock data downloaded from my data provider has been corrupted so I am unable to post individual stocks today. However, the indices are fine.

1) KLCI- despite some earlier signs that the CI was due for a correction, it hasn't happened. Based on the charts, it is still in a positive mode. Crucially it is still above the 940 support, its within the confines of the upper band of the BollingerBand (in purple) & staying there & the BB is still rising. H'ever the BB is starting to narrow. This can prelude a minor correction or if prices burst out upwards, then it can be the start of the next run upwards. Daily RSI is flat & MACD has made a negative cross down. H'ever the weekly RSI & MACD are positive. Hmmm, what can we make of this? Difficult to say. If it breaks below 938 (the BB support) then a correction will happen, but if it continues to stay above 940, then the BB will probably narrow & then burst upwards for the continuation of the run. At the moment anything can happen & there is no clear-cut direction.


2) CI Futures - just like the CI it is still staying positive. It is well within the upper BB which is still rising. It is also above the 5, 10 & 15-day MAV. Daily & weekly RSI & MACD are positive. Support is at 940 & resistance is 960. If it stays above 940 for another 2 days then I have to say it will be more bullish than bearish. But for now its still positive but barely so bec volumes have been very low the last few days.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Update: RHB & Utama

RHB - Has fallen for 5 days straight after breaking thru the support line at 1.16. Friday was a big fall. Its now at the support level of 0.93 & next support is 0.80. RSI & MACD are both down. It is a major breakdown so don't get into any new positions until we know for sure whats happening & until we see a strong reversal of the fall in a bullish candle pattern. Stay away from RHB for now.


Utama - Has been falling for quite a few sessions & fell badly on Friday. When it broke down from the symmetrical triangle (ST) on 3 Aug (red circle) that was a sign of major correction. It has continued falling since then & culminated in a big fall Friday. H'ever it has now formed a long legged Doji & if Monday it opens above 0.91 & stays above, that will give us an evening star & maybe the correction will be over. That is the optimistic scenario, but if it stays below 0.90 then next support is only at 0.82. I would stay out for now.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Updates: Tebrau & Impressive Edge

Tebrau- No change in TA since I last wrote. Its still within the descending triangle (DT). RSI & MACD are still down. I am getting very uncomfortable with this position bec a DT is a weak pattern indicating downside movement & bearishness & a breakdown will be very bad for the stock. The "hoped for" (shouldn't really be hoping should we?) breakout from the DT has not materialised. Keep an eye on 0.50, if it falls below this then SELL. Next support is 0.45 & 0.40.


Impressive Edge: It has formed an Ascending Triangle (AT) with 0.275 being a strong resistance. Prices have been rising & it is still bullish as its in the upper channel of the Bollinger Band & also above the 5,10 & 15 day MAV. Vol has been receding as it gets closer to the apex of the AT which is typical of distribution within this formation i.e. holders selling at 0.275 are diminishing & once sellers at 0.275 disappear buyers will take the upper hand & prices will burst out of the top & rise strongly (at least thats what Dow Trading & AT is theoretically about). So based on technicals, we should soon see an up move provided it breaks 0.275 on strong volume. Traders can take a position in this stock but cutloss if prices fall below 0.245.

Update KLCI & Futures

KLCI - is showing more signs of weakness. A Doji formed on Friday & its still just above the 940 support/resistance line & almost equal to the futures which is at 942.5. Daily MACD & RSI are trending down tho the weekly are still positive. The more interesting chart is the weekly chart (shown below) which is showing a Doji for the week. That is a stronger indicator of a possible correction, as candle reversals signs on a weekly must not be ignored. If Monday opens below 942 & closes below it, then it is a better indication that we will see the correction we have been expecting. BUT if Monday opens up & stays up then the Doji is invalid. So we have to wait for the market to give us its cue.


CI Futures is a diffcult call. It made a bullish strong white candle Friday & is still barely above the 940 support/resistance level, but volume is getting smaller. Daily MACD & RSI are flat. It is still above the 5,10 & 15 day MAV. Weekly it made a strong white candle which is bullish. Weekly MACD & RSI are still positive. Its one of those times when its almost impossible to make a call. So best I can say is that we have to wait for another 2 days to see what happens. I would not short or go long at this stage, just be patient & wait for iys next move.